Algebraic formula for predicting an ordinal variable using the relative likelihood-based evidential method
We consider the problem of predicting an ordinal variable using the evidential method for statistical inference and prediction, based on the relative likelihood. First, we establish that under some conditions, this prediction can be calculated by integrating the marginals of the possibility distribution representing the estimation uncertainty in this method. Then we show that the prediction even admits an algebraic form when the estimation uncertainty is derived from previous observations of the ordinal variable