Approximation extérieure de la prédiction crédibiliste basée sur la vraisemblance d’une variable ordinale

Having observed a sample y of a random vector Y following a multinomial distribution with parameters n known and p1, . . . , pK unknown, we wish to represent our uncertainty concerning a future realization of an ordinal variable Z with parameters p1, . . . , pK. This prediction problem is addressed in this paper using an evidential approach based on the likelihood, which has had some success in recent years. We derive an analytical expression of an outer approximation of the predictive belief function resulting from this approach.